2013

Uncle Drummer interviews Deegz Milliano Hosted by Verona Rose

Uncle Drummer interviews Deegz Milliano Hosted by Verona Rose

Deegz-Drummer

The Curious Case of Britain’s Economic Recovery

The Curious Case of Britain’s Economic Recovery

The U.K.’s Growth Spurt Has Taken Economists Almost Entirely by Surprise

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The global financial crisis has challenged some of the economic profession’s most cherished assumptions. And no country has confounded the textbooks more than the curious case of the U.K.

For five years, the British economy has persistently failed to behave as predicted by theory—and continues to do so with increasing evidence it is growing faster than almost any other major Western economy.

It is only the latest surprise. Most forecasters expected the Bank of England’s unprecedented money-printing program, in which it bought government bonds equivalent to 20% of gross domestic product, would trigger a recovery. Yet output remains 3% below its peak in late 2007.

Most forecasters expected the 20% depreciation in the pound since the start of the crisis to spark a recovery in exports. It didn’t happen.

Economic theory suggested the faltering economy would stoke unemployment, which in turn would cause output per worker to rise. Yet unemployment only rose modestly to 8% while productivity is still 4.4% below precrisis levels.

Economic theory also suggested that a weak economy would mean lower inflation. Yet since 2007, it has averaged nearly a percentage point above the BOE’s 2% target and well above rates in other European countries.

Now the U.K. is providing another mystery. This week’s GDP data are likely to show that the economy grew 0.8% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter. Indeed, if recent survey data are to be believed, growth could be heading for 5% year-over-year, according to Rob Wood, chief U.K. economist at Berenberg Bank.

Yet this growth spurt has taken economists almost entirely by surprise. It is hard to identify a single leading forecaster predicting such a strong recovery at the start of the year, or even at the end of the first quarter.

As recently as July, the International Monetary Fund was so gloomy about the U.K. that it was advising the government to loosen its deficit-reduction strategy. This month, it raised its 2013 growth forecast by half, to 1.4%.

How did the U.K. rapidly transform from laggard to leader right under the noses of the unsuspecting economics profession? And is this growth sustainable?

The answer to the first question is becoming clear: More policy makers and economists now accept that the most plausible explanation for the U.K.’s postcrisis underperformance and its recent outperformance lies in the workings of the financial system—something that barely features in standard macroeconomic models.

Previous attempts to blame the U.K.’s weak performance on the government’s fiscal policies have been undermined by the recovery and by the fact that U.K. austerity hasn’t actually been very austere. While economists argued over Keynesian demand-side remedies, the main problem was one of supply—specifically the supply of finance.

Thanks to a broken banking system, the economy was unable to reallocate resources to productive parts of the economy, argues Kevin Daly, senior economist at Goldman Sachs. Healthy businesses were denied the credit they needed to expand. What has changed this year is that financial conditions have become easier. Mortgage rates for new loans have fallen by roughly one percentage point on average. Credit is available again on reasonable terms.

This partly reflects banks having met their capital and liquidity targets. But it also reflects policy action to boost credit creation—including a new BOE facility introduced in June 2012 that has dramatically eased bank funding costs—and a controversial new government mortgage-guarantee program modeled on U.S. government-backed agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Easier credit conditions have rekindled consumer confidence and spending. Other factors have played a role, including the cooling of the euro crisis over the past year. But the pace of the recovery relative to global growth suggests it is primarily homegrown.

The turnaround is remarkable. House prices are up 6% nationally and are rising much faster in London and England’s southeast. New buyer enquiries are at record levels and mortgage approvals are up 38% in the year to September. New car registrations were up 12% in September from a year earlier. Retail sales are growing at their fastest pace since 2008. The savings rate has fallen by a third this year to 5%.

Not for the first time, the U.K. is betting that salvation lies in a consumer-led recovery fueled by rising house prices. But the success of this strategy isn’t guaranteed. Much depends on whether finance proves to have been the only structural impediment to the U.K.’s economic rebalancing.

If the answer is yes, then strong consumer demand should lead to increased business investment and rising productivity. That would create the conditions for wages to rise, vital to enable households to service increased debt. With wage growth currently well below inflation, household incomes have been severely squeezed for six years. But if it turns out the crisis has inflicted wider damage to the supply-slide potential of the economy, then a subsidized credit binge could be storing up trouble in the form of higher inflation, falling disposable incomes and increased household debt.

So far, the picture is mixed. Business investment fell in the second quarter by 2.7%, and the trade gap has widened since the start of the crisis, reflecting weak export growth. But finance chiefs are increasingly willing to consider new investments, according to a recent survey by Deloitte.

Similarly, the unemployment rate fell by only 0.1 percentage point in September to 7.7%, raising hopes that inflation can fall and productivity will pick up as the economy recovers.

But a sharp fall in the numbers of Britons claiming unemployment benefits—they saw their biggest fall in 16 years in September—may indicate that the economy has less spare capacity than most assume.

Meanwhile a key vulnerability remains in the high cost of housing. True, the stock of debt relative to the value of houses has fallen and total mortgage-interest costs are well below 2007 levels, suggesting affordability isn’t such a problem, at least outside London.

But unless rising house prices are offset by a boom in house-building, which seems unlikely without wider reform, the long-term impact of easier credit conditions may simply be to further unbalance the economy.

Indeed, the irony may be that in fixing one supply problem, the U.K. may end up exacerbating another.

Corrections & Amplifications
This week’s GDP data are likely to show that the economy grew 0.8% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter. A previous version of this article said the data was due next week.

AGENDA BY SIMON NIXON (Wall Street Journal)

MOBO Awards 2013: The Winners

MOBO Awards 2013: The Winners

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Last night as the MOBO Awards celebrated its 18th birthday in their new venue – The SSE Hydro in Glasgow. The winners were…

Best African Act
Fuse ODG

Best Album
Home, Rudimental

Best Female in association with Tresor Paris
Laura Mvula

Best Gospel
Lurine Cato

Best International Act
Kendrick Lamar

Best Jazz
Sons of Kemet

Best Male
Wiley

Best Newcomer in association with HTC
Krept & Konan

Best Reggae Act
Sean Paul

Best RnB/Soul Act
Laura Mvula

Best Song in association with PRS for Music
‘La La La’, Naughty Boy

Best UK Hip Hop/Grime
Tinie Tempah

Best Video in association with SBTV
‘La La La’, Naughty Boy

Be MOBO
Stephen Lawrence Trust

Racist man on the London Underground

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A racist man on the London underground starts shouting abusive and racist remarks at Japanese passenger then threatens to kill other passenger on train.

RAKIM – Live in Concert London 12th Dec 2013

RAKIM – Live in Concert London 12th Dec 2013

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RAKIM

Venue:
IndigO2, London
Date:
Thu, 12/12/2013 19:00

AGMP presents RAKIM – Live in Concert

The Greatest MC of all time

In 1986, Rakim started to work with New York-based producer-DJ Eric B. The duo—known as Eric B & Rakim—is widely regarded as among the most influential and groundbreaking of hip-hop groups, due in no small part to Rakim‘s technical abilities.

The duo’s first single, “Eric B. Is President” was a success and got the duo a contract with the fledgling Island Records sub-label 4th & B’way. The duo’s next single, the smash “I Know You Got Soul,” sparked early debate on the legality of unauthorized, uncredited sampling when James Brown sued to prevent the duo’s use of a fragment of his music.

Their first full album, “Paid In Full”, was released in 1987. causing a stir in the hip-hop music world due to its novel sound, approach, and subject matter. Rakim pioneered a practice previously unknown to hip-hop called internal rhyming. Already an important aspect of traditional poetry, where rhymes could be found throughout the bar of a lyric which added to the rhythmic complexity of the song: “I keep the mic at Fahrenheit, freeze MCs, make ’em colder/The listeners system is kicking like solar/As I memorize, advertise like a poet/Keep it goin’when I’m flowin’ smooth enough, you know it’s rough.” Instead of two rhyming syllables within two lines at the end of the lines, as we would find in the older hip-hop style displayed above, we have 18 rhyming syllables in just four lines. Rakim also introduced a lyrical technique known as cliffhanging and popularized the use of metaphors with multiple meanings. His songs were the first to really impart hip-hop music lyrics with a serious poetic device sensibility.

Eric B & Rakim went on to produce three more successful albums, all now considered hip hop standards.

Jay Z catches the Tube in London to his own concert

Jay Z catches the Tube in London to his own concert

To most people’s surprise catching the tube in London back home from work on Saturday night, Jay-Z takes the underground to his concert also accompanied by Chris Martin, Timbo and a few others.

Everybody knows how manic travelling around London can be, that’s why for some of us,  hopping on the tube is the best option to get around quickly. Yesterday London commuters were in for a big surprise as Jay Z, who’s currently in town for the London leg of his Magna Carta Holy Grail Tour, rode the tube to his show at The O2.  As if one Grammy Award wining artist on the tube wasn’t enough, Timbaland and Chris Martin were also spotted with Jigga, along with a few more of his entourage.

Of course their sightings drove Londonders into a frenzy and many of those that spotted the crew  hit Twitter.

Fans wrote:

“Coming off the tube and I see Jay Z casually walking up the next escalator next to me… EVERYONE GOES NUTS!! WTF??!”

“So jay Z gets on a tube to his own concert LOOOL about 500 ppl just ran after him.”

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BUSTA RHYMES; METHOD MAN & REDMAN LIVE AT EVENTIM APOLLO, HAMMERSMITH SATURDAY NOV 2ND FOR 1 NIGHT ONLY

BUSTA RHYMES; METHOD MAN & REDMAN LIVE AT EVENTIM APOLLO, HAMMERSMITH SATURDAY NOV 2ND FOR 1 NIGHT ONLY

SUPERSTARS OF HIP HOP TOUR FT BUSTA RHYMES; METHOD MAN & REDMAN LIVE AT EVENTIM APOLLO, HAMMERSMITH SATURDAY NOV 2ND FOR 1 NIGHT ONLY!!!

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If you’re a REAL Hip Hop fan, on Saturday November 2nd there is only ONE place to be… all roads lead to the Eventim Apollo, Hammersmith for the SuperStars of Hip Hop Tour to witness history as Hip Hop Icons BUSTA RHYMES; METHOD MAN & REDMAN all touch down on ONE stage for ONE night only performing all of their hits & underground classics!
Grammy nominated BUSTA RHYMES has sold more than 10 million albums in the U.S. alone including 8 certified Platinum and Gold albums with hits such as “Woo Hah (Got You All In Check)”; “Put Your Hands Where My Eyes Could See”; & “Touch It”. BUSTA is on the verge of dropping his 10th studio album “E.L.E.2 (Extinction Level Event 2)” for his new record label Cash Money Records featuring his 1st single “Twerk It” produced by Pharell Williams & featuring Nicki Minaj.
Wu-Tang Clan’s legendary poster boy; the Grammy award winning METHOD MAN has abundance of classic material including hits such as “M.E.T.H.O.D. Man”; “Bring The Pain” & “All I Need To Get By / I’ll Be There For You”. With his 4 solo studio albums to date (2 multi Platinum); 2 collaborative albums with Redman (1 Platinum) and 4 Platinum selling albums as part of the legendary Hip Hop supergroup; Wu-Tang Clan he has no shortage of hits to perform his London fans. METH is scheduled to release his 5th solo album “Crystal Meth” imminently.
The much loved & critically acclaimed REDMAN has 7 solo albums to date including 5 Platinum & Gold selling albums featuring hits like “Da Goodness”; “Lets Get Dirty” & “Smash Somethin’”. REDMAN also has an 8th studio album in the works dropping 2014 entitled “Muddy Waters 2” as well as another collabo album with his partner in rhyme METHOD MAN entitled “Blackout 3”.
BUSTA RHYMES; METHOD MAN & REDMAN are not just Hip Hop legends but 3 of THE best live performers in the artform bar none! This event is set to be legendary… will you be there? Don’t miss out, get your tickets today before they sell out!

WE PLAY MUSIC LIVE Sunday 27th October 2013

WE PLAY MUSIC LIVE Sunday 27th October 2013

 

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WE PLAY MUSIC LIVE

Sunday 27th October 2013

London’s premier live music show is back on Sunday 27th October 2013. This will be our final LIVE show of 2013 and we will end the show series on a high by bringing you another amazing line up of UK acts so come and join us at Queen Of Hoxton in Shoreditch for another evening of must see stage performances.

PERFORMING LIVE ON STAGE FROM 8pm

COREE RICHARDS (From UK RnB group Damage)

CHANTELLE FRANCIS

SYLVIA STONE

ELLA FRANK

DELICIA ELLIOTT

TIZZY

PLUS MORE SURPRISE GUESTS

All acts perform to a live audience and each performance is simultaneously broadcasted live directly from the venue stage and streamed seamlessly via London’s leading music station DejaVufm.com to global audiences and it is this that really sets us apart from your average LIVE music event.

Presented by DJ Dlux

Hosted by Peaches, Joe Grime, Fearney & Siobhan Copland

Entertainment will be provided by the #WePlayOldSkool #SoulOnASunday DJs playing the OldSkool Classic favorites.

ADMISSION: £7 on Guest list. M.O.T.D

For guest list or group bookings please email full names to weplaymusic@dejavufm.com

All names must be submitted no later than 5pm the day before the event.

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DJ Sin talks to DJ 279 about Choice FM London and more

DJ Sin talks to DJ 279 about Choice FM London and more

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DJ 279 from Choice FM talks to DJ Sin about his recent departure from the Radio station and his feelings about the future.

Uncle Drummer interviews Talapaton on London Hott Radio

Uncle Drummer interviews Talapaton on London Hott Radio

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